Forecast of actionable radiation belt scenarios - 7788230
The EOTVOS LORAND TUDOMANYEGYETEM in Belgium from Europe region had released this tender for Forecast of actionable radiation belt scenarios Forecast in Space Weather modeling mostly ignore the fact everything is driven by the sun that is basically unpredictable Propagating observed solar dynamics to Earth is questionable it depends on models whose boundary conditions we are incapable of constraining We are limited to data at L1 giving a one hour lead time and neural net type forecasts of controlling parameters e g Kp that govern the physics of our best models Nowcasts are better advanced data assimilation techniques with physics based models show great fidelity in reproducing the real radiation belt RB environment Operational use of such Nowcasts is limited by lack of high quality real-time data beyond GEOS The FARBES project is different it limits its ambition to simple achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the break of a space weather event once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators on a few key event characteristics a Time to most severe environment b Most severe Flux reached c Time to the end of event These characteristics were deemed most useful by spacecraft operator representatives at ESWW16 http www stce be esww13 contributions public S5-O1 S5-O1-03-PitchfordDave FORECASTINGTHEPERFECTSTORM ppt We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics based models driven by simple affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for RB dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs with tender notice no. 101081772 published on 29 Apr 2025. The tender expired on 31 Dec 2025. This tender is sourced from Cordis and is eligible for suppliers interested in Mathematical or forecasting software package, Weather-forecasting services, Meteorology services. Interested bidders can obtain further information including complete bid documents or ways to participate by registering on Tender Impulse and referencing via Tender Impulse ID 7788230.
*The deadline for this tender has passed.
Tender Notice No:
101081772
Tender Organisation:
EOTVOS LORAND TUDOMANYEGYETEM
Tender Sector:
Tender Service:
Worldwide
Tender Region:
Tender Country:
Tender CPV:
48462000 : Mathematical or forecasting software package
71351600 : Weather-forecasting services
71351610 : Meteorology services
Tender Source:
Cordis
Tender Document Type:
Tender Notice
Tender Description:
Forecast of actionable radiation belt scenarios Forecast in Space Weather modeling mostly ignore the fact everything is driven by the sun that is basically unpredictable Propagating observed solar dynamics to Earth is questionable it depends on models whose boundary conditions we are incapable of constraining We are limited to data at L1 giving a one hour lead time and neural net type forecasts of controlling parameters e g Kp that govern the physics of our best models Nowcasts are better advanced data assimilation techniques with physics based models show great fidelity in reproducing the real radiation belt RB environment Operational use of such Nowcasts is limited by lack of high quality real-time data beyond GEOS The FARBES project is different it limits its ambition to simple achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the break of a space weather event once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators on a few key event characteristics a Time to most severe environment b Most severe Flux reached c Time to the end of event These characteristics were deemed most useful by spacecraft operator representatives at ESWW16 http www stce be esww13 contributions public S5-O1 S5-O1-03-PitchfordDave FORECASTINGTHEPERFECTSTORM ppt We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics based models driven by simple affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for RB dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs
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Common Questions About This Tender
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Who has issued this tender, and what is it for?
The tender has been issued by EOTVOS LORAND TUDOMANYEGYETEM in Belgium. Such a type of tender falls under Mathematical or forecasting software package, Weather-forecasting services, Meteorology services, within the Night Vision Devices Tenders sector, and is listed on Tender Impulse under notice number 101081772.
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What are the key dates for this tender?
The notice was published on 29 Apr 2025 and submissions close on 31 Dec 2025. Late bids are rarely accepted in public procurement, so aim to have your documents ready several days before the closing date.
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Which CPV codes apply to this tender?
It is classified under CPV codes 48462000, 71351600, 71351610, which correspond to Mathematical or forecasting software package, Weather-forecasting services, Meteorology services. If your company supplies these products or services, these are the codes to save in your alert profile so no matching tender passes you by.
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Suppliers must verify technical specifications, the delivery schedules and any other intrinsic details as provided in the complete bid documents before deciding to submit their bids. All necessary certifications and supplier registrations must be undertaken before participation.
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Is this tender beneficial for me?
The procurement is applicable to companies in the Mathematical or forecasting software package, Weather-forecasting services, Meteorology services and related industries. If you belong to this industry, you can review the technical documents before assessing your relevance to your company.
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