Forecast of actionable radiation belt scenarios

The EOTVOS LORAND TUDOMANYEGYETEM in Belgium from Europe region had released this tender for Forecast of actionable radiation belt scenarios Forecast in Space Weather modeling mostly ignore the fact everything is driven by the sun that is basically unpredictable Propagating observed solar dynamics to Earth is questionable it depends on models whose boundary conditions we are incapable of constraining We are limited to data at L1 giving a one hour lead time and neural net type forecasts of controlling parameters e g Kp that govern the physics of our best models Nowcasts are better advanced data assimilation techniques with physics based models show great fidelity in reproducing the real radiation belt RB environment Operational use of such Nowcasts is limited by lack of high quality real-time data beyond GEOS The FARBES project is different it limits its ambition to simple achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the break of a space weather event once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators on a few key event characteristics a Time to most severe environment b Most severe Flux reached c Time to the end of event These characteristics were deemed most useful by spacecraft operator representatives at ESWW16 http www stce be esww13 contributions public S5-O1 S5-O1-03-PitchfordDave FORECASTINGTHEPERFECTSTORM ppt We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics based models driven by simple affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for RB dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs with tender notice no. 101081772 published on 29 Apr 2025. The tender expired on 31 Dec 2025. This tender is sourced from Cordis and is eligible for suppliers interested in Mathematical or forecasting software package, Weather-forecasting services, Meteorology services. Interested bidders can obtain further information including complete bid documents or ways to participate by registering on Tender Impulse and referencing via Tender Impulse ID 7788230.